jmh123

All I see is that Clay, for his fourth straight album, is on track to be in the top five of Billboard's Hot 200.

He's put out another CD that I love.

The old paradigms are dead.

Some time it seems the only ones who don't that are the members of the Clay Nation dedicated to hyperbole.

Great article, KAndre, and everything in it points to a guy like Clay having a future. For example:

Yet in the current climate, managers like Fall Out Boy’s McLynn know not to depend on old delivery systems. “You have to look at radio and MTV as gravy,” he says. “It can take you to the next level, but a lot of bands can have good careers without going there. These days, with the lack of record sales, it’s the bands that do tour and have that fan base that are the ones that are going to last as artists. Everyone else is going to have to get jobs.”

And lots more!!!!

Y'all read this article, and

DANCE!!

And yeah, I think the only people who are looking at these numbers and weeping are the 'fans'.

Thread title???

As to radio being so important - apparently Gavin McGraw had over 2000 spins last week compared to Clay's 20-something.

People just need to chill and open their eyes to the world as it is today. Like everyone else, I cringe when I have to buy gas, worry about how I will pay off my much higher than expected propane bill at the end of my budget cycle, faint when I have to buy milk or bread. I work in an industry dependent on people being willing to spend money on what they want, not what they need - and things are slow here overall. Any industry involved with discretionary spending is hurting - and the music industry is no different. Add that to the effect the internet has had on CD sales and its a recipe for disaster.

I know ATDW - an album of covers - sold over 200K its first week, but while that was not that long ago, it was another time, another era. And since scandel sells, it wouldn't surprise me if all the crap actually made people curious enough to buy the CD!

I think all involved - Clay, TC, RCA - everyone were very realistic about how this CD would sell. I doubt any of them are surprised or terribly disappointed. Frankly, the only worry they may have (and that I too may have) is how many of his core fanbase have been buying mulitples. If we, like most "normal" people, only bought one, how low would those numbers be?

Now that is a scary thought.....

As for the multiples, the numbers, I think, would be no more than 10,000 less at the most. There just aren't that many on-line fans who buy multiples, I'm guessing maybe 1,000 tops.

But let's put this in perspective. I took a peek out there. Here are ALL their projections:\\Neil Diamond - 125-130K

Madonna - 85-90K (second week sales)

Clay - 80-85K

Gavin DeGraw - 75-80K

Toby Keith - 60-70K

Josh Groban - 50-55K

Dierks Bentley - 30-35K

And Dierks Bentley was singing several songs on the Today Show this morning!

So let's see, Clay is projected to come in third - higher than the likes of Gavin DeGraw, Josh Groban, Toby Keith and Dierks Bentley. When you look at it that way, its not bad!

Sign of the times, folks. Sign of the times. Some people may be having to choose between gas and CDs!

Not to mention that Clay just really started promoting the album yesterday, due to Spamalot obligations. He had his first TV appearance this morning, but those projections are based on sales that happened on Tuesday.

Guys don't go out...it is a jungle out there!

HDD projects 85K and the "his career is over" posts have started!

Sorry if the "guesstimate" numbers bum anybody out, but please... If you've been following CD sales numbers, they're spiraling down, down, down for everybody.

Clay's got more national promotion before the sales week is up. No worries here.

I'm with you babe. It's a good album, and it will sell lots more. At the risk of repeating myself, no one sells millions album after album, especially in today's market. Kylie Minogue had huge promo, radio, and way more TV than Clay and sold 6,000 copies her first week.

Here's what's selling "organically" at iTunes right now:

On My Way Here

Where I Draw the Line

Lover All Alone

The Real Me

Grace of God

Something About Us

As Long as We're Here

Ashes

Sacrificial Love

Falling

Weight of the World

Everything I Don't Need

On My Way Here is way ahead of the pack, way ahead, but Where I Draw the Line has been a favorite since the album came out. Ashes has never been very high up. Poor EIDN isn't getting any love at all.

There seems to be a discrepancy between fan preferences and preferences of the general public, so perhaps we as fans shouldn't be trying to artificially influence things???

Is Clay sending super sekrit messages to people saying which CDs to trash and which to praise?

He's texting them, dontcha know?

I've been watching iTunes for a couple of years now, periodically taking note of which of Clay's songs are most popular. I'd love to know whether the popularity ranking of songs of a particular artist is for all time sales, or based on current sales or what. BOTW was at the top for Clay for a long time, but then was passed by MDYK, and it has remained at the top until today. "On My Way Here" is now on top. The songs most popular (i.e. most downloaded) on the album "On My Way Here" as of today are:

On My Way Here

Lover All Alone

Where I Draw the Line

The Real Me

Grace of God

Something About Us

As Long as We're Here

Ashes

Sacrificial Love

Falling

Weight of the World

Everything I Don't Need

Yesterday the list was:

On My Way Here

Where I Draw the Line

The Real Me

Lover All Alone

Something About Us

Grace of God

Ashes

As Long as We're Here

Sacrificial Love

Falling

Weight of the World

Everything I Don't Need

So "Lover All Alone" is working its way up pretty quickly. The album is #6 #5 on the all-albums chart, and #2 on the pop albums chart. "On My Way Here" is #52 on the pop songs chart. An interesting thing about that chart is that the release date of those songs ranges from 1993 to 2008. Only 37 songs of the top 100 on the pop chart are from 2008.

"On My Way Here" the song was the first to crack Clay's top 20, with "On My Way Here" at #12 most popular last night. Today, it is #1. These are the 25 most popular songs by Clay on iTunes right now:

On My Way Here*

Mary, Did You Know

Bridge over Troubled Water

Solitaire

This Is the Night

Lover All Alone*

Where I Draw the Line*

The Real Me*

The Way (from the Way/Solitaire EP)

A Thousand Days

The First Noel

O Holy Night

On the Wings of Love

Grace of God*

Something About Us*

Without You

As Long as We're Here*

Ashes*

Measure of a Man

Sacrificial Love*

Because You Loved Me

Right Here Waiting

Falling*

I Will Carry You

Measure of a Man

Either "On My Way Here", the album and the song, are Clay's most popular iTunes entry ever, or these stats are for only the day, the week, the month, whatever.

Just for comparison, here's Clay's top 20 most downloaded songs on iTunes when I last checked in February 2008:

Mary, Did You Know

Bridge over Troubled Water

A Thousand Days

Solitaire

Without You

Right Here Waiting

Because You Loved Me

When I See You Smile

Everything I Have

Sorry Seems to Be the Hardest Word

Everything I Do (I Do It for You)

Broken Wings

Every Time You Go Away

Lonely No More

These Open Arms

Here You Come Again

Lover All Alone

This Is the Night

O Holy Night

The Way

I love the whole thing, every song. So many different flavors: gospel, blues, pop, jazz, r&b, country, deep voice, choir boy voice, growls, hooks, more hooks, electronica, complexity, simplicity.... Lots more listening to do.

Got mine too--I'm getting everything ready to go for immersion. I did already listen to the bonus. A gospel-y feel to it, IMO (but only sonically, CG, not to worry).

My friend and were making plans for tonight, and we just found out that our WalMart is no longer open 24 hours. It's iTunes or nothing til tomorrow for me. Well except for AOL. Thank god!

I so loved that show and I loved how they treated Clay. You know, they could have easily resented his presence there - hadn't paid his dues etc., stunt casting, who the hell does he think he is - that kind of thing. But I think its not only a testimony to Clay's character, but to the character of the cast members that they embraced him with respect and affection.

And they even seemed to like "us"! And "we" showed the loved to the entire cast as they welll deserved it.

I was thinking the same thing today--after the topic of the weekend being fans, whether the PYTs should be in front and us uncool old folks should hide ourselves, and last week it was OTT fans driving venues insane--the Spam Clan could just as easily have decided we were just too much trouble. They could have resented the scrabbling for extra Playbills and Playbills with the ad in them, rolled their eyes at repeat attendees, been disgusted with the lack of theatre savvy and various incidents that resulted, or creeped out by the crazy folks (and I'm sure there was some of all of that), but they loved us, just as they loved him. Perhaps it was the Broadway Cares efforts that won them over completely, or maybe they are just good and decent people, but whatever it was, I'll never forget it.

AOL is playing the full album today on First Listen: http://music.aol.com/songs/new_releases_full_cds. Just click on the album cover. EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!1

Remember that the listens will be monitored, so listen lots. If you don't want to be spoiled, just mute the sound.

MUAH to all the FCAers who were there this weekend for a monumental experience. I'm so glad y'all were there to represent us!!

ETA: snap, ldyj

They are seeing what WE see – a brilliant, intelligent, and genuinely funny and lovely man.

Thread title!!!

crack like an egg, my ass

Something cracked all right--but it wasn't Clay.

People keep talking about the difference in the PR between Spamalot and the album PR, but I don't think it's the PR that's different. It's that Clay has been treated with so much respect and love by his peers on Broadway, compared to the way he is too often treated by too-cool folks in the music biz. On Broadway, talent and hard work and heart are respected far more than "cool" points--that's what Ms Too Cool Levy didn't get.

I didn't read FDawg's skit as pessimistic, myself. I just thought of it as a mocking of all the reviews that have come out this weekend. Not to say you're wrong, you're obviously entitled to see it differently, but I wanted to clarify my own view, since I posted it. I don't take the original as a serious statement about Broadway, although there's some truth to it, and I reacted to her skit in the same way.

At any rate, I'm not feeling at all pessimistic about his career at the moment. I wasn't psyched up for huge sales in the first week. I didn't expect instant cred for Clay. As long as the album is good, I'm happy, and I have no doubt of that based on the snippets. It'll take years for the Spamalot high to wear off, for me.

Hopefully this will make you laugh. From Fountaindawg at CH:

...I'll just have a word or two hundred about the so-called 'music critics' who are too cool for school. (And not meant for those who do give honest critiques of music ... not fandoms.)

And I did it myyyyyyy waaaaaayyyyyyyyyy ...

***********************************

Overheard one chilly March day at rehearsal when Clay got his day job and night job confused.

KIPPER (with newspaper in hand): Do you know this "Critics’ Way?"

CLAY: Oh yes Kip...but we won't stand a chance

KIPPER: Well why not?

CLAY: Because...Critics' Way is a very special place,

Filled with many “special” people.

People who can’t sing or dance,

Or write about them worth a dime!

Many are a different people, a mocking-talented-people,

A people who want to lead people...and who are, in many ways,

The snootiest people in the world.

So I'm sorry Kip, but we won't stand a chance.

KIPPER: But why not?

CLAY: Well...let me put it like this.

In any CD adventure,

If you don’t want to lose,

Be sure it isn’t my name on the jacket that you use.

Yes, listen, KIPPER clearly, yes closely to this news:

We won't succeed with critics,

If my name is on what‘s new!

You may have the finest sets,

Film a video with vets,

You may have the loveliest costumes and best shoes.

I may dance and I may sing,

But I am sorry, KIPPER king,

You'll get no cheers,

Just lots and lots of boos.

You have top session folks by the score

(With anyone else they’d be adored),

You may even promote at every Morning Zoo,

Though you've stats and clips to vend

Without RCA backing at the end,

I must tell you, you are dead,

If my name is on what‘s new!

They won't care if the lyric’s witty,

Or that not *every* song sounds “pretty“,

They'll simply say it's shitty and confused .

Nobody will praise, sir,

It‘s likely been written for days, sir,

The CD wrapper may not have even moved!

Without shows in which men swear,

Or lots of girls in underwear,

I guess I’ll never get the greatest of reviews.

CRITIC: This sounds the same!

CLAY: Yeah, the critics just won't care, sir,

No matter what you dare, sir,

You won’t get the “Buy it!’ praise sir

KIPPER: If your name is on what‘s new.

You may have dramatic editing,

Or lots of touches exciting,

You may even have some ’Everything I Don’t Need’ blues!

Your studio musicians are the best?

That won‘t matter to the rest.

They‘ll say ‘His songs are all the same old hues.’

So, despite your late, late nights,

And fanciful musical flights,

And the most impressive interpretations you can use...

You may have Quiana sing soprano,

Play an out-of-tune piano,

But they will not give a damn-o

If my name is on what‘s new!

( Clay practises the 'Bottle Dance Stomp' on critics’ heads.

Oy!)

You may use cool guitar riffs,

Make songs anything but stiff,

You may even use blues licks and songs with kick!

But they won’t have a clue,

Or care a wit what you do

They‘ll just write the same old crap they always use!

There's a very small percentile,

Who can set aside their bias awhile,

I'm sad to be the one with this bad news!

So stop that wall head-beating,

It’s history repeating.

You just won't succeed with critics,

If my name is on what‘s new!

CLAY: RCA, can you hear me?

To get good reviews on Critics' Way,

Can’t be my songs the critics' play,

To hit the top on Critics' Way and not Grade Z,

I tell you, KIPPER king,

There is one essential thing ...

There simply can’t be

My name on what’s new.

There simply can’t be,

Kipper trust me,

Simply can’t be …

KIPPER: YOU!!

Following the bread crumbs left here, I ventured over to CV for the WaPo review, for those who want to read it. The scan doesn't have the full text, but it's worth seeing to get an idea of the tone. Elvis Costello got creamed, and I thought he was cool (but in the text he gets a B+) (editing because I figured out how to read the scan; it's all there. The creaming of Costello is the "what you won't love" segment):

Here's the link: Sunday Source You have to click on the name of the album at the end of the column to read the "review."

top of the page curse continues

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhh!!!! My laptop now has a US IP (at the hotel), so I was able to download OMWH from Amazon. You have NO idea how thrilled I am!!!

Only thing....it didn't ask me for payment information! Just went ahead and downloaded....scratches head........what's up with that?

Did anyone else do this? Do they bill you or something?

If you have an account with Amazon, which I assume you do, they just bill your card. You'll get a notice in a day or two.

I have five LaCie's and one buy.com special Cavalry, just to add to the mix. LaCie's often have Maxtor or Seagate drives.

I got e-mails from Walmart and Amazon - eeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

No tracking available from Walmart, but the Amazon package was picked up in Delaware today at around 12:30. I wish I knew where the Walmart facility is. I'd love to get a CD in the mail a day early this year, since my local store is not likely to have the CD out at midnight and iTunes might not get that pre-order link up by midnight either. Whenever it comes....it won't be long now!!!!!!!!! EEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here's one for you, YSRN, one of my favorites. Although the age doesn't fit, other lines, :

They Mock Me for Planting Trees at My Age

Seventy, and still planting trees...

Don't laugh at me, my friends.

Of course I know I'm going to die.

I also know I'm not dead yet.

by Yuan Mei, trans. J.P. Seaton

It is a DVD/CD combo that sells for $16.99 at Amazon, and is strictly concert recordings, no new music, no CD to buy separately. Amazon.

I said that about the predictions, and evidently I'm wrong. I thought they used to give advance estimates based on shipments. It's been a long time since I followed HDD. Maybe by next Wednesday??

Madonna's sales of her new album are at around 20% less than her previous one, and she's had huge PR, huge. All sales are way, way down. Also, Clay was #1 at Amazon for ages for MOAM, but has only been in the top 15 or so this time. On the other hand, he's been in the top 15 or so for weeks and weeks. At iTunes, he is out of the top 100 albums list altogether now, and around 32 in pop, although he was selling well there when the pre-order first began. I have noticed at iTunes that pre-ordering really isn't the thing--even when Clay was down to the 30s on the album chart, he was third in pre-orders.

I think the internet marketing strategy has done all it can do now, and he needs a different kind of exposure; perhaps there will be TV ads during American Idol next week or something of that nature. That would probably stimulate a ton of sales, but it would cost a fortune. He does have GMA and the View next week, and more TV after that. An appearance on Idol or DWTS would be a big boost.

I'm a lot more optimistic about the legs of this album. Partly because of the constraints of Spamalot, the promotion appears to be more geared towards the long term. He's much better off selling like Carrie Underwood's first or Kelly's Breakaway, in that they sold in the tens of thousands week after week for a year or more.

As long as he sells enough the first week not to be labeled a failure, I'm cool. The reason so much was made of his being in the top 5 and over 200,000 for the 4th time last time, tying some record or another of all people ever, was that artists just don't sell huge amounts album after album after album. If he sells a million or more of this album within this year, I'll bet it will be taken as a comeback and it'll sell even better because it'll get PR for that. If he gets nominated for a Grammy, there would be another surge. If word of mouth is great, that'll work. Radio play sometimes works. There are a lot of things that can contribute to long-term sales, and no guarantees, but AI people have been among those to do very well, perhaps because AI does keep people's names in the public consciousness. So first week sales, while great for a pissing contest, and always used as a PR plug if they're great, aren't the be all and end all. MOAM's sales after the initial roll-out were pretty disappointing--based on the initial sales, they expected more long-term than they got.

Sorry about the PMS, couchie, but I hope this will cheer you up. Here's your new avatar!!